Beiträge von jamc
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usd/chf
auf einen dollar call zu setzen, ist meiner meinung nach noch zu früh;
unter folgendem link findet man übrigens gute analysen zu verschiedenen währungen:
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Swiss Re
DJ MARKET TALK: Vontobel Backs Swiss Re Buy, Sees Opportunities
0738 GMT [Dow Jones] Bank Vontobel backs Swiss Re (RUKN.VX) at buy after investor day. Company's short-term opportunities include expected hardening of property and casualty reinsurance, demand for Admin Re transactions, and increased reinsurance demand on regulatory changes, says analyst Stefan Schuermann. "The still considerable excess capital, even after Japan losses, should keep the dividend safe for the time being, based on the group's policy of a 'sustainable and over time growing dividend'," Schuermann says. Sees targeted double-A rating now taking more time to achieve, but not off table entirely. Target price is CHF64. Shares trade 0.7% higher at CHF50.90. (katharina.bart@dowjones.com)
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Swiss Re: Anpassung des EPS aufgrund von Naturkatastrophen
von Sebastian Weber
Montag 14.03.2011, 09:17 UhrFACTS:
Ein massives Erdbeben der Stärke 8.9 auf der Richterskala und ein dadurch hervorgerufener Tsunami haben die Ostküste Honshus verwüstet. Die Anzahl der Opfer beträgt >1800 und der Sachschaden ist enorm. Nach den Überschwemmungen in AUS und dem Erdbeben in NZ ist dies eine weitere, grosse Naturkatastrophe für die Versicherungsindustrie.COMMENT:
Wir gehen davon aus, dass dieses Erdbeben die Versicherungsindustrie mehr kosten wird, als die USD 3 Mrd. des Kobe Erdbebens in 1995. Selbst wenn ein grosser Teil von Japan selbst getragen werden wird, rechnen wir eine Vorsteuerbelastung von USD 500 Mio. bei Swiss Re ein. Nach Vorliegen der Ergebnisse für das 1Q11 am 5. Mai werden wir eine Feinanpassung vornehmen. Einschliesslich der Verluste aus den Naturkatastrophen in Australien und NZ im 1Q11 reduzieren wir unsere GJ11E EPS-Schätzung um 30% auf CHF 4.47 und das Kursziel von CHF 68 auf CHF 64 pro Aktie.CONCLUSION:
Das Risiko in unserem Buy Ansatz ist gestiegen und die Anhebung des S&P Ratings auf AA sollte jetzt nicht vor Ende 2011 erwartet werden. Allerdings ist die Bilanz von Swiss Re sehr stark und die mögliche Anhebung die Preise im nach wie vor sehr weichen Rückversicherungsmarkt sollte sich positiv auswirken und zu einer Marktumkehr führen. Buy, Kursziel CHF 64.Quelle: Vontobel
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Swiss Re
dangermouse wrote:
ZitatSwiss Re hat sich aber recht schnell wieder erholt.. von 48.70 auf aktuell 50.30.
Klar, immernoch massiv im minus, aber könnte doch noch viel schlimmer sein.
ja, bin auch positiv erstaunt; hatte auch am freitag noch folgende meldung gesehen, die nicht so negativ war:11-03-2011 22:56 Japan Disaster Shows Coverage Gaps, But Quake Still Costly For Insurers
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Despite the massive destruction caused by Friday's earthquake and tsunami, the global insurance market won't bear the heaviest burden when rebuilding begins because Japanese homeowners and businesses have been reluctant to buy insurance to cover all of their potential losses.
The cost will be borne more by the government and citizens of Japan, making the recovery process more arduous than it would be on other developed nations. Still, the massive scope of the disaster will mean the portion covered by international insurers will be well into the billions of dollars--and will likely be one of the most expensive earthquakes in history.
Fewer than half of Japanese homes have earthquake protection, and the policy limits are often well below the cost of rebuilding a dwelling, experts on the Japanese insurance market said. Much of the coverage is backed by a government-supported pool, called Jisai, instead of being passed off to the global reinsurance market, which protects insurers from large losses.
Still, some home insurance in Japan is sold through cooperatives called kyosai, where agricultural groups, unions or other organizations arrange the coverage for their members. Kyosai buy backup protection from companies based outside Japan, unlike the rest of the home-insurance market.
Businesses in Japan don't buy government-backed insurance, relying instead on private insurance. But the coverage isn't included in standard property policies, and the companies that buy the added protection often don't purchase an amount that would cover a total loss. Risk Management Solutions Inc., a disaster-modeling company, said many small- to medium-size businesses are "completely uninsured."
The earthquake that killed more than 6,000 people in Kobe in 1995 caused about $100 billion in economic damage. Only about $3 billion of it was insured, and much of the cost was borne by domestic companies. The devastation--which struck a part of the country that wasn't thought to be overly susceptible to earthquakes--prompted more businesses to buy quake protection, said James Few, president of the reinsurance operation at Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. (AHL). But the increase in insurance buyers has been less than expected. Both businesses and homeowners perceived the coverage to be expensive, he said.
"It's not that this won't be a big loss" to the insurance industry, said Few. "But the gap between economic loss and the insured loss will still be far greater in Japan than you would expect to see for a similar event in the U.S. or Europe."
RMS and its rivals haven't published estimates of insured losses yet, but analysts who track insurance companies said insurance claims could be $10 billion to $25 billion. One analyst said it could be as high as $50 billion. Even at the low end of the range, the losses would mark Friday's event as the second or third most-expensive quake for the insurance industry in history. The only quakes that rival it are the $15.3 billion earthquake in Northridge, Calif., in 1995 and last month's temblor in Christchurch, New Zealand, where costs are still being tallied.
Investors on Friday were busy trying to sort out which insurers and reinsurers would be hardest hit, though the companies themselves declined to comment or said it was too soon to say. Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings SA (FSR) plunged 12% in afternoon trading to $9.65. The company said in a filing with securities regulators last week that it sold a "significant amount of catastrophe" coverage in Japan, though it wasn't its largest market. Lloyd's of London underwriter Chaucer Holdings Plc (CHU.LN) fell 6.5% to 54 pence. Other decliners included the world's largest reinsurers, Swiss Reinsurance Co. (RUKN.VX) and Munich Re; and smaller firms, including Platinum Underwriters Holdings Ltd. (PTP), Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. (MRH) and TransAltantic Holdings Inc. (TRH). All fell 4% or more.
Still, industry executives said international insurers and reinsurers will be able to meet their obligations tied to the quake. But what happens to the industry next is a difficult question to answer. Insurers are already on the hook for substantial claims tied to storms and flooding in Australia and the Christchurch quake, and analysts said many reinsurance companies will report first-quarter losses and may end up losing money for all of 2011.
This year's spate of disasters comes after costly earthquakes in Chile and New Zealand last year, and some insurers and reinsurers are also paying out claims tied to last year's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
After all the catastrophes, the Japanese quake could be cause for a worldwide increase in the cost of disaster coverage, which would be felt by buyers of insurance around the world.
Reinsurers have been flush with capital and have been cutting prices as they compete for clients. But payouts on catastrophe claims will deplete some of their excess capital and force a re-evaluation of the areas where disaster costs can, theoretically, be even higher, such as in hurricane-prone parts of the U.S. and earthquake-prone California.
In addition, RMS recently released a new hurricane model that drastically increased its estimates for potential storm costs in parts of the U.S.
"Everybody is already talking about the impact on the U.S. marketplace," said Rod Fox, chief executive of reinsurance broker TigerRisk. The Japan earthquake, "when you combine it with the model changes, will stop the slide in U.S. pricing and could have even stronger effects going forward depending on the size of the loss.
"Fifteen billion will stop the decrease in prices," he said. "To the extent Japan starts getting larger than that, the impact becomes even more significant."
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Swiss Re
DJ MARKET TALK: Reinsurers Outlook Uncertain After Quake
1119 GMT [Dow Jones] Reinsurers' guidance, updated during the recent earnings season, seems uncertain or impossible to achieve after the strong earthquake in Japan, being among the most-feared natural events for insurers and reinsurers, and among the most expensive, says Oddo. Keeps reduce recommendation on Munich Re (MUV2.XE) and Hannover Re (HNR1.XE), buy on Swiss Re (RUKN.VX) and accumulate on Scor (SCR.FR).
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Swiss Re
@dr. zock
zur Zeit kann nicht abgeschätzt werden, wie gross die schäden wirklich sind. das dürfte noch wochen dauern.
wie helvea ausführt, werden die versicherungen in der nächsten runde andere preise vereinbaren können; somit glaube ich nicht, dass es jahre dauern wird, bis die versicherungen sich wieder erholen.
es wird sicherlich in den nächsten wochen weiter nach unten gehen - da gebe ich dir recht. aber nichts desto trotz halte ich es wieder einmal für übertriebene panickmacherei. es ergibt sich aber dadurch wieder gute einstiegschancen.
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Swiss Re
1-03-2011 09:49 DJ MARKET TALK: Swiss Re Can Withstand Japan Quake - Helvea
0849 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss Re (RUKN.VX) is well placed to withstand its exposure to the Japanese earthquake, Helvea says. "Swiss Re is well capitalized and should be able to take this in its stride," says analyst Tim Dawson. "Their business model is based on events like this; they don't sit there crossing their fingers and hoping for the best." With the extent of the damage still to be assessed, if the losses are not huge Swiss Re should be able to absorb them, while the company could benefit from increased prices in the future, he adds. Has an accumulate rating, and a CHF62.5 target price. Shares drop 5% to CHF50.95. (john.revill@dowjones.com)
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Re: Potential
Street wrote:
ZitatDas Potential ist sicher vorhanden. Aber genau die Maschnschaften bei Glencore / Xstrata sind sehr undurchsichtig. Da kaufe ich mir lieber Mini Future auf Xstrata von der Bank Vontobel. Weniger Riskiodito
bei den mini futures gibt es auch gute auswahlen
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Re: zu hoch
Street wrote:
ZitatIch finde den Call zu teuer. Vorallem das Verhältnis. Somit müsste der Kurs auf über CHF 24.75 steigen, damit du ein Gewinn machst und das ganze bis ende 2012... sehr riskant!der leverage bei xtaum ist nicht gerade gross! also wenn du in ein paar tagen gewinn hast - würde ich persönlich realisieren.
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Swiss Re
serious wrote:
ZitatIch glaube, jetzt schlägt der allgemeine Trend nach unten durch. Wenn wir uns die Zahlen von SwissRe vergegenwärtigen, glaubte ich zumindest, dass die Neuseeland fast locker wegstecken (wegen Rückzahlung Warren Buffet). Oder habe ich da etwas falsch interpretiert. Aus dem hohlen Bauch heraus meine ich, SwissRe sei besser wie Munich aufgestellt.entscheidend ist was swiss re für die katastrophen in australien und neuseeland zahlen muss - und das dürfte zum jetzigen zeitpunkt noch nicht klar sein. aber es ist kein gutes zeichen, wenn munich re das gewinnziel in gefahr sieht; da muss man ja davon ausgehen, dass es bei denn anderen rückversicherer auch nicht besser ist.
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Xstrata
serious wrote:
Zitatjamc wrote:
... bis jetzt hattest Du Recht. Wie lange muss man warten? Habe XTAUM für 24 Rp. erhalten.
Leider bin ich nicht prophet :lol:
aber für mich sind folgende punkte von bedeutung:
- krise in lybien und folglich das ansteigen des ölpreises
- charttechnisch gehts beim SMI in richtung 6300 und somit werden einzeltitel weiter nach unten gehen. (http://www.cash.ch/news/topnew…_smi_bei_6300-1010949-771)
also ich denke, dass es in den nächsten wochen in langsamen schritten weiter nach unten gehen wird.
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Swiss Re
Dr.Zock wrote:
ZitatWeiss jemand wann dieser massivste Kursrückgang gestoppt wird ?
Minus 3% alleine für heute ist schon eine Hausnummer. Und wenn man die weiteren Minus 8% der vergangenen Tage zusammenzählt.......??? :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
na ja, der kursrutsch war nach der negativen meldung von munich re zu erwarten ... ich glaube leider, dass es bei swiss re noch weiter nach unten gehen wird. charttechnisch sieht es ja für den smi ja auch nicht gut aus ...