Posts by Conan

    Petroplus Analyst Day - London

    [adapted from the original text at investmaid.com]

    Later today, at its Analyst Day, Petroplus will mainly present:

    - the details of its 3-year improvement program with $1.89 EPS targeted for 2012

    - Q4 2010 update (refining margins + impact of French strikes) and 2011 outlook.

    Lindt at CHF2,829

    bru74ph wrote:

    Quote
    Wir sind bei CHF 2,554 und sinken. Die CHF 2,820 möchte ich sehen. Sind das jetzt Gewinnmitnahmen?


    Lindt at CHF2,829!

    As per my note on Oct 25....

    Cheers!

    Lonza: +3.11% at CHF81.30

    Goldman Sachs increases Lonza price target CHF95 (CHF83). Rating kept at “Neutral”.

    Re: Technical Indicators

    Conan wrote:



    [adapted from the original text]


    It is like a textbook case:

    All five common technical indicators have generated a buy signal alongside each other and concurrence of buy signals were crying out loud for a major upsurge. In fact, Petroplus did not have to wait more than six sessions [after Nov 23] before jumping 13% in a single day (Dec 2).


    Goldman Sachs’ rating increase turned out to be triggering event for the rise. It is likely that Goldman Sachs and some privileged investors with “a priori knowledge” were accumulating Petroplus shares since the mid of Nov - which had caused technical indicators to give consistent buy signals........


    http://www.investmaid.com/view…143b9d3211b228c745ad#p531

    Technical Indicators

    Conan wrote:


    1. Stochastic Oscillator: Buy (18/11)

    2. Commodity Channel Index: Buy (18/11)

    3. RSI: Buy (19/11)

    4. MACD (26,12,9): Buy (23/11)

    5. Parabolic Stop & Reversal: Buy (22/11)


    [adapted from the original text at brokernews.ch]


    ...as a rule of thumb, concurrence of buy signals improves the likelihood of catching a real uptrend.


    Petroplus closed Nov 23 at CHF9.61. In the three session following Nov 23, Petroplus increased 3.54% to close the week at CHF9.95 and outperformed SPI (+1.38% in the same period). However, this is not that meaningful as being a high beta stock, Petroplus usually moves faster than the market to either directions.


    Signals are all positive; but, we still need to wait and see whether a major uptrend is under formation...

    Petroplus (PPHN)

    Neu-SG wrote:

    Quote


    * French major Total is looking to sell the 221,000 barrels per day refinery, Britain's third-largest refinery, which began operation in 1968 and employs about 500 people.


    * In May, Total said it had received several bids and would hope to reach a deal after the summer.


    * Swiss refiner Petroplus said it had proposed buying it. Petroplus said earlier this year, 'We are still looking at this opportunity.'



    There is a fourth line in that piece of news which is missing above:

    "* However, Petroplus has been making losses this year."


    This line translates into:

    “Petroplus is no longer in a position to make an offer for this refinery.”


    Full text:

    http://www.reuters.com/article…I1PY20101119?pageNumber=2

    Re: u-blox

    Dilemma wrote:

    Quote
    :?:

    U-blox hat Heute schon ein Volumen von über 70'000

    und das ohne News....mmmh


    :?:


    Ohne News?

    Das ist nicht richtig!


    Die u-blox Holding AG meldet im Rahmen einer Pflichtmitteilung folgende Beteiligung bzw. Beteiligungsveränderungen (Publikationsdatum: 18.11.2010):

    Partners Group 8,8% (zuvor gemeldeter Wert: k.A.)

    Re: Takeover speculation

    Conan wrote:


    Technical Indicators

    1.Stochastic Oscillator: Buy (18/11)

    2.Commodity Channel Index: Buy (18/11)

    3.RSI: Buy (19/11)

    4.MACD: close to a buy signal (histogram at -0.06)

    5.Parabolic Stop & Reversal: close to a buy signal (SAR at 10.05)

    Takeover speculation

    Marktinsider wrote:

    Quote
    Riesige Chance, denn Petroplus ist stark unterbewertet und gemäss Gerüchten ein Übernahmekandidat für BP, Shell & Co. - sie könnten dann komplett von der Förderung und Umwandlung (Erdöl zu Benzin, Kerosin, Heizöl, etc) zum Endkunden gelangen.

    Gruss

    Marktinsider




    There is a takeover speculation going on but...

    Not BP, not Shell, not at all!

    You need to look a little bit East most probably.


    Interesting takeover story:

    http://www.brokernews.ch/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=2&p=476#p476

    Fresh all-time high: CHF36.80

    [adapted from the original text]

    ...coupled with the overall market positivity, these encouraging statements [note: statements made by the Temenos CEO in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires] helped Temenos to record a fresh all-time high today [after three years] at CHF36.80 before closing at CHF35.95 – up 5.74% (SPI +1.71%)...

    A positive day for Nobel Biocare

    [adapted from the original text]

    ....a positive day for the overall market (SPI +1.35%) and even a more positive one for Nobel Biocare (at CHF16.78, +3.90%). Citibank’s latest study on the dental implant manufacturers amplifies the overall positivity in the market for Nobel....


    ...despite trying it twice since the announcement of Q3 2010 results, Nobel Biocare failed to break its strong resistance at CHF17. Upon success, Nobel can comfortably extend its rally up to CHF19...

    Sonova (Phonak)

    [adapated from the original text]

    ...assuming 2010/11 EPS to be slightly below CHF6, Sonova currently trades with a P/E ratio of 22 – a justifiable level for a fast growth stock, but still pretty generous compared to many others. Sonova is almost at the far end of its share price potential...


    ...it is reasonable to expect Sonova to trade in the CHF112-130 range – with a potential to temporarily surge towards CHF140 although breaking above this level is most unlikely...

    Actelion

    Cherrokee wrote:

    Quote

    Conan wrote:


    Schön, wenn das Aufwärtspotenzial endlich zum tragen kommt!

    Hoffe, dass bald einige news kommen um die die Aktie etwas zu beleben!


    cherrokee



    Glücklich?!

    Ich denke du bist.

    Actelion

    smiletoyou wrote:

    Quote
    Hält sich heute sehr gut :D


    Keine Überraschung!

    Actelion unter CHF 50: es ist eine Kaufgelegenheit.


    Actelion: CHF50.05, -0.69%

    SMI: -1.30%

    Positive momentum

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    [adapted from the original text] ...even in the absence of takeover speculation, EFG can still maintain its positive momentum as the wounds of the one-time hit (i.e. loss on hedge fund write-downs) heal and the title regains investor confidence with its healthy business fundamentals. As a next target on the way up, EFG is likely to make an effort to close the CHF13.9-14.8 trading gap it formed on the announcement day of July 28


    Nicht schlecht!

    EFG 13.20, +0.38 %

    -------------------------

    SPI 5'764.90, -1.22 %

    CS 40.98, -1.75 %

    UBS 16.55, -2.30 %

    Julius Baer 39.53, -2.44 %

    Newron

    [adapted from the original text] ...Newron could not break above CHF6, despite an inspiring upper thrust day (Nov 5 with 7.6% increase and 40,8k shares traded).


    Newron closed today at CHF5.51, drifting 8.2% away from the CHF6 level. In the absence of a catalyst event (i.e. without fundamental news), the course of price movements call for further decline...

    Positive momentum

    [adapted from the original text] ...even in the absence of takeover speculation, EFG can still maintain its positive momentum as the wounds of the one-time hit (i.e. loss on hedge fund write-downs) heal and the title regains investor confidence with its healthy business fundamentals. As a next target on the way up, EFG is likely to make an effort to close the CHF13.9-14.8 trading gap it formed on the announcement day of July 28

    Takeover speculation

    [adapted from the original text]...it looks like the worst is over for EFG; however, it is unclear what drives up the stock. Analysis on the Swiss Private Banking sector that cries out loud for a wave of consolidation is pretty popular nowadays; it is likely that some investors see EFG as a potential takeover target. However, a closer look reveals that EFG is not a readily available target...

    Investors' Day on Dec 2

    [adapted from the original text] ...assuming a P/E ratio of 10, EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x and dividend yield of 6% (currently at 6.9%) for valuation purposes, it is reasonable to expect Zurich to fetch a share price of CHF270 and above without a major difficulty. Based on its latest closing price, Zurich currently proposes an upside potential of 15-20%....


    ...However, Zurich is still in need of a catalyst to trigger the rally as disappointing Q3 2010 results could not actually do the trick. Zurich will hold an Investors’ Day on Dec 2; this event could potentially be the catalyst needed...