Posts by Conan

  • OC Oerlikon

    Oerlikon: ready to move on!

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    Dec 20:...Oerlikon is consolidating its place above CHF5 as investors are opening positions to play for the H2 2010 results, expected to be back in black...


    Today’s announcement, concerning the first ThinFab orders for the solar division, is especially important...as excluding the solar division, Oerlikon would be profitable...


    ...considering the recent resilience of the share price to remain above CHF5 and improved investor interest in mid-cap industrials, Oerlikon shines out as an excellent value with 35% upside potential.


    When Oerlikon was hovering around CHF5 three months ago, I set CHF7 as the price target for this title. Now, I am revising it...

    New price target: CHF10


    ...devoted to the followers and lovers of Oerlikon.

  • Syngenta

    Lucrative entry point

    Syngenta declined 5.9% in 2010 and had significantly underperformed the Stoxx Europe Chemicals index which added on 22.7%. However, investor sentiment had started to change towards the end of 2010 and the recent share price performance of Syngenta clearly reflects this change: Syngenta is up almost 10% so far this year, whereas the sector index is slightly down (-2%). Actually, in the first six weeks of 2011, Syngenta increased 18.5% to trade as high as CHF324 earlier this month....


    Following the announcement of FY2010 results (on Feb 9) and in parallel to the overall market weakness, Syngenta recently retreated 8% to just below CHF300. However, the investment case still remains intact...


    Syngenta has not yet reached to it full market value potential and the recent share price retracement provides investors with a lucrative entry point...


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…47aa37faf428b0aab33d#p989

  • Petroplus (PPHN)

    What is next?

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    ...considering the degraded risk/reward profile of the title, it makes sense not to carry any Petroplus position ahead of the risky Q4 announcement and observe the newly formed sentiment for a few days before taking a position (short or long)


    ...Petroplus’ retracement gained speed as the crude oil prices abruptly increased and the overall market weakened due the Middle East turmoil. Petroplus traded as low as CHF14.42, almost 20% below the recent high and 10% below the pre-announcement level, on Feb 24 before closing the week at CHF14.86. As a result, investors, who sold before the FY2010 announcement, have chance to reenter the title at a lower price. But, should they?


    What is next for Petroplus?


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…406b90c28934898a&start=60

  • Nobel Biocare

    Re: Nobel Biocare at CHF19.97

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    ...it is difficult not to agree with the assessment of Credit Suisse; market is clearly overoptimistic on Nobel, which currently trades at 39 times the reported 2010EPS (€0.37/CHF0.51). Assuming that Nobel delivers its guidance (mid single-digit growth in revenue and EBIT margin of 18%), 2011EPS would be CHF0.80, roughly 60% above the reported 2010EPS. Accordingly, Nobel is valued at P/E multiple of 25x on projected (forward-looking) basis. In any basis of comparison, Nobel is overvalued as a company which promises a lot and delivers only little....

    Full text available at:

    http://www.investmaid.com



    Stop-trading, CHF18.50

    Market corrects sooner or later; for Nobel Biocare, it is sooner than later...

  • Schindler

    Breaking below the trend line

    ...announcement of FY2010 results (last week) accelerated the draw back and Schindler now stands 13% below its all-time high, at the verge of breaking below the trend line....


    ...With its current sluggish outlook, Schindler hardly deserves a P/E multiple of 20x. Schindler is likely to break below the trend line and retreat towards CHF90 in the coming months.


    Full text available at:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…0c4fdb14f91596e32c78#p974

  • Sonova (Phonak)

    Trading in a range, as expected

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    Nov 18: ...it is reasonable to expect Sonova to trade in the CHF112-130 range – with a potential to temporarily surge towards CHF140 although breaking above this level is most unlikely...


    Sonova ventured a short-lived surge towards CHF140 a few days after my article above and traded as high as CHF136.1 on Nov 22, before plunging to CHF124 due to the worldwide product recall. In the last three months since the recall, Sonova has been trading in the CHF115-127.5 range. It most recently closed at CHF122. Accordingly, the prediction above turned out to be an accurate one.


    ...Sonova seems to be fairly valued at the current price levels in the course of 2011. Only after Sonova...


    Original text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…34ecbdd4613703ec0d3e#p968

  • Nobel Biocare

    Nobel Biocare at CHF19.97

    ...it is difficult not to agree with the assessment of Credit Suisse; market is clearly overoptimistic on Nobel, which currently trades at 39 times the reported 2010EPS (€0.37/CHF0.51). Assuming that Nobel delivers its guidance (mid single-digit growth in revenue and EBIT margin of 18%), 2011EPS would be CHF0.80, roughly 60% above the reported 2010EPS. Accordingly, Nobel is valued at P/E multiple of 25x on projected (forward-looking) basis. In any basis of comparison, Nobel is overvalued as a company which promises a lot and delivers only little....


    Full text available at:

    http://www.investmaid.com

  • EFG International

    CHF20 in sight

    It looks like the worst is over for EFG; as the wounds of the one-time hit (i.e. loss on hedge fund write-downs and the notorious July 28 sell-off) heal and the title regains investor confidence with its healthy business fundamentals...


    EFG currently trades at 9.5 times the estimated 2011 EPS. As a company delivering one of the highest growth rates in the private banking sector, EFG is clearly undervalued compared to its Swiss peers...


    EFG is likely to close this valuation gap in the course of 2011 and can be fairly valued at CHF20 per share...


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…a56b05c4ce349e769cf174122

  • Swiss Life

    Swiss Life at CHF160

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    28 Okt: Swiss Life scheint überverkauft.

    Es kann auf CHF 160 erhöhen ... mit oder ohne "takeover" Spekulation.


    Swiss Life made two CHF10 jumps in the last ten days to trade as high as CHF159.9 on Feb 2. Most recently closed at CHF156.6 (Feb 4), Swiss Life is now consolidating below CHF160. In just three months after my post above, Swiss Life increased almost 50% to catch my price target (CHF 160).


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…abc985fc7c52c2aa4816#p918

  • Petroplus (PPHN)

    What is next?

    ...In this context, Petroplus will announce its Q4 2010 results on Feb 3... even factoring in the negative impact of French strikes, Petroplus is still likely to deliver a clean EBITDA of $120Mio (or above). Nevertheless, meeting the covenants is not necessarily sufficient to secure the extension of the current rally...


    ...even if Petroplus delivers some good news this time, it is likely that investors sell on the news following a 70% rally. Accordingly, considering the degraded risk/reward profile of the title, it makes sense not to carry any Petroplus position ahead of the risky Q4 announcement and observe the newly formed sentiment for a few days before taking a position (short or long).


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…4bc416b9ca6a6446&start=50

  • Actelion

    Actelion

    Conan wrote:

    Quote
    Oct 26: Either way (with or without a takeover), Actelion is a winning proposition. Each time Actelion share price dips below CHF50 should be treated as a buying opportunity.


    The two alternative scenarios [i.e. defined as "either way"] continue to precisely describe the trading pattern of Actelion. Today’s trading swing provides a crystal clear picture of how a failure (i.e. product trial setback) can indeed have a positive effect on the share price (market value) of a company – as described in the second scenario (way).


    Conclusion remains the same: either way, Actelion is a winning proposition. Each time Actelion share price dips below (or towards) CHF50 should be treated as a buying opportunity.


    For further details, refer to investmaid.com

  • Basilea

    Basilea

    UBS downgrades Basilea to “Sell” (“Neutral”) without changing its CHF65 price target.




    Concerning the downgrade of UBS:

    Despite the downgrade of UBS, Basilea closed today unchanged at CHF72.5. SPI is up 0.29%.

    Basilea’s share price performance today is a clear market response to UBS’ equity research: in simple terms, the market does not care at all about what UBS thinks about Basilea.


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…dcae2b9ee7cb700ffd07#p880

  • Logitech

    Logitech & Q3 2010/11 results

    Logitech will announce its Q3 2010/11 results on Jan 27 (at CET04:00). In less than two days, we will see whether the prophecy of UBS and Credit Suisse (i.e. better than expected Q3 2010/11 results) will come true; if it does, Logitech’s share price could move above CHF20 in a session or two, due to massive short covering.


    Full text:

    http://www.investmaid.com/view…b0b98e934b88ac97&start=10