At this moment investors are just piling on everything solar. Do i really need to make a list of all solar stocks in Europe and the US and they gain in the last 6 months? It's pretty much 300% gain across the board if not more. Go check on tickers such as DQ, SEDG, CSIQ, JKS, RUN, VSLR, SPWR, FLSR and even the less financially stable company's like SOL. In Europe you also have some players like WCH.de and S92.de, respectivly polysilicon suppliers and providors of electrical gear for solar installations similar to DQ and SEDG respectivly. It's not likely to stop soon imho, it's more like were at the cusp of another solar and alternative energy boom. A boom that btw was kinda overdue aswell. Ellections in the US might also prove impactfull, but otoh the current economic crisis has also layed bare the predicament of the US shale oil industry for example while a company like tesla is pushing for electrification of transport, politicly we might be heading to a effort to decrease oil consumption for both econmic reasons and climate concerns spurring domestic jobs in alternative energy as the technoligy has also matured more in recent years anyhow. Yes it's speculative to have the outlook that now the green revolution really about to start, but it does appear to be so looking at the color of my solar stocks, getting such gains as "100% and more" over a few mere months sure is daaaamn noice.
Good going to all those who took the speculative risk, i think the current upward trend isn't going to stop soon but thats "just my 5 cents".
Beiträge von Flemie
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CHF 0.6 Thx
CHF 0.6
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swissrain hat am 28.07.2020 05:17 geschrieben:
ZitatI would wish to know how much you believe in your analysis and in the success of this start-up, and what a position in percentage of your overall investments you would allocate to mbtn. Curiosity ... - Please also have some understanding for those that had wished to keep the forum in German language. It is a new thing and a challenge to have a mulit-language forum. Not everybody is used to many languages.Belief is not the best term to use in stock investment. It's about strategy and risk management. My typical strategies range from "dividend farming" to "value investment" and "early adoption strategy". Dividend farming because Belgium has some fair dividend stocks and no capital gain tax, something Switzerland has too. Value investment is a technique rather popularized by Warren buffet, there are plenty of resources to find online like on youtube where you can learn all about it. With value investment you can do a rather fair amount of "risk control", typically value investments will have a much higher likelihood for upside than further downside. Early adoption strategy is what drives me to take a position in Meyer Burger, this strategy is all about being able to foresee emerging markets and players who might attain distinct advantages in that and buying into them way before the masses do, quality of management or company often plays a fair role in that too. Early adoption strategy was what made me buy Tesla at $20 for example back in the day, but i didn't take such a big position in it simply because given the potential upside there was few strategic reason to invest/risk so much. If it were purely for belief i would have invested more back then in Tesla, but the strategy i keep to do't allow that. I find it perfectly fine to have a few highly speculative small positions within one's portfolio from a strategic point of view but it would be way too dangerous to have a large part of a large portfolio being stocks like that, and then even if not all the speculative story's materialize it's often enough that just 1 does given the potential upside attached.
So my position in Meyer burger is a few thousand euros, something like 2% of my portfolio. It doesn't need to be more risky because if Meyer Burger pulls off its guidance it will be plenty of profit i reckon. Besides the ambitious guidance the company has history, know how, some proprietary technology and could attain a distinct advantage in mitigating Capex costs in the future which seems quite the advantage. Potential upside looks attractive in contrast to potential downside at this point given that the stock has a fair book value and managed to complete it's KE, nevertheless it's to be understood as a rather risky investment all considered and i wouldn't dare to claim otherwise. With a good strategic approach, that risk is rather manageable, and what i would rather give as advice is that its good strategy imho to have a few small risky speculative stock positions on a larger portfolio for the potentially much larger upside.
As for language i will try me best, i have spell checked this post this time. I will add a German translation of this below.
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Glaube ist nicht der beste Begriff für Aktieninvestitionen. Es geht um Strategie und Risikomanagement. Meine typischen Strategien reichen von "Dividend Farming" über "Value Investment" bis hin zu "Early Adoption Strategy". Dividendenfarm, weil Belgien einige faire Dividendenaktien und keine Kapitalertragssteuer hat, was auch die Schweiz hat. Value Investment ist eine Technik, die vom Warren-Buffet sehr beliebt ist. Es gibt viele Ressourcen, die Sie online finden können, wie auf Youtube, wo Sie alles darüber erfahren können. Mit Value-Anlagen können Sie eine ziemlich angemessene Menge an "Risikokontrolle" durchführen. In der Regel haben Value-Anlagen eine viel höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit für Aufwärtsbewegungen als für weitere Abwärtsbewegungen. Die Strategie der frühzeitigen Einführung treibt mich an, eine Position bei Meyer Burger einzunehmen. Bei dieser Strategie geht es darum, aufstrebende Märkte und Akteure vorauszusehen, die darin deutliche Vorteile erzielen könnten, und sie weit vor den Massen, der Qualität des Managements oder des Unternehmens zu kaufen spielt auch oft eine faire Rolle dabei. Die Strategie der frühen Einführung hat mich damals dazu gebracht, Tesla zum Beispiel für 20 USD zu kaufen, aber ich habe keine so große Position darin eingenommen, nur weil es angesichts des potenziellen Aufwärtspotenzials nur wenige strategische Gründe gab, so viel zu investieren / zu riskieren. Wenn es nur aus Glauben wäre, hätte ich damals mehr in Tesla investiert, aber die Strategie, die ich beibehalten möchte, lässt das nicht zu. Ich finde es vollkommen in Ordnung, aus strategischer Sicht ein paar hochspekulative kleine Positionen innerhalb des Portfolios zu haben, aber es wäre viel zu gefährlich, wenn ein großer Teil eines großen Portfolios aus solchen Aktien besteht, und dann, wenn nicht sogar aus allen spekulative Geschichten materialisieren sich, es ist oft genug, dass nur 1 angesichts des damit verbundenen potenziellen Aufwärtspotenzials ausreicht.
Meine Position bei Meyer Burger beträgt also einige tausend Euro, was ungefähr 2% meines Portfolios entspricht. Es muss nicht riskanter sein, denn wenn Meyer Burger seine Führung verliert, wird es meiner Meinung nach viel Gewinn bringen. Neben der ehrgeizigen Anleitung verfügt das Unternehmen über Geschichte, Know-how und einige proprietäre Technologien und könnte in Zukunft einen deutlichen Vorteil bei der Minderung der Investitionskosten erzielen, was durchaus von Vorteil zu sein scheint. Potenzielle Aufwärtsbewegungen sehen im Gegensatz zu potenziellen Abwärtsbewegungen zu diesem Zeitpunkt attraktiv aus, da die Aktie einen fairen Buchwert hat und es geschafft hat, ihren KE zu vervollständigen. Dennoch ist dies als eine ziemlich riskante Investition zu verstehen, und ich würde es nicht wagen, etwas anderes zu behaupten. Mit einem guten strategischen Ansatz ist dieses Risiko ziemlich beherrschbar, und ich würde eher als Ratschlag geben, dass es eine gute Strategie ist, ein paar kleine riskante spekulative Aktienpositionen in einem größeren Portfolio für den potenziell viel größeren Aufwärtstrend zu haben. -
swissrain hat am 27.07.2020 14:14 geschrieben:
ZitatFlemie hat am 27.07.2020 18:23 geschrieben:
Interessante Aussage, die ich nicht verifizieren kann. Bei Tesla aber bestimmt so.
Man wird in den künftigen Wochen sehen, was für eine Neubewertung MBTN erfährt.
Best reference i could take for that in relation to Meyer burgers own guidance are companies like Sunrun and Solaredge in the US though their bussiness is not completly the same. This is because Meyer burger has a serious guidance for YoY growth going forward coupled with a high EBITDA. It's typically the company's with high YoY growth that get a hefty valuation baked in advance. Solaredge for example had a revenue of 600 million + EBITDA of 100 million in 2017, and 1.4 billion revenue + 200 million EBITDA in 2019. Meyer burger guides a revenue of 400/450 million in 2023 with a ebitda of 25% = 100/112 million, and extrapolating from their growth guidance by 2025 that should be roughly triple for about 1.2/1.35 billion revenue and 300/335 million Ebitda. Sedg now has a market cap of 8.7 billion, had a market cap of about 1.7 billion by the end of 2017 and 1.2 billion by the end of 2015 when they had a revenue of roughly 350 million, 31 million EBITDA and 160 million in equity.
Meyer Burgers guidance is rather ambitious indeed, both for YoY growth and EBITDA margin, and afcourse profitabillety plays a fair part in valuation. As it is the company still has nearly 150 million equity and a rather manageable amount of debt and now gets an added 160 million cash. By 2023 Meyer burger could be at the valuation of SEDG in 2017 given similar ebitda and YoY growth guidance, and by 2025 maybe more than 10 billion given higher profitabillety than SEDG has now (for a 8.7 billion market cap) ... and afcourse providing valuations are similar to the US and YoY growth remains fairly stable So if you dial that guidance back to now you could have something of SEDG it's valuation in 2015 + added some for higher guided profitabillety, granted that seems more like a valuation to aim for somewhere in 2021 when revenue could perhaps be expected to be somethign along the lines of 160 million revenue and 40 million EBITDA on top of the revenue that Meyer Burger might still get from it's other activity's, atleast by then it would give a more clear picture and providing Meyer Burger is well on track and achieves high profitabillety that guidance would look rather juicy. For now the picture is yet not so clear, it really depends if Meyer Burger can grow at the rate of what they guided and crucially can achieve that level of profitabillety but optimism might come from the moment it starts looking good the more because such a high profitabillety would suggest a strong competitive advantage for MB towards future growth. But based on it's own Guidance you might be looking at 50x youre innitial investment by 2025. Quite the potential upside, worth a risk imho given that even if the guidance is not met it doesn't nessecarily need to lead to bankrupcy yet either.
But ok, it's still a "very rough" estimate i gave taking in mind US forward looking valuations aswell, it's not like it's easy to compare with the relative limited amount of data and examples for comparison, so deffinatly take my feedback with a heavy grain of salt, but if i really had to put an arbitrary number on it that was about my logic for that rough number. -
I think about 2 billion would be the valuation in the US. Often something like 5 years of growth priced in advance, and with the likes of Tesla even 10 years of growth providing everything runs smooth aswell. Current Market cap of Tesla is greater than Volkswagen and BMW combined, but Tesla only makes about 500.000 cars a year currently and has managed to double it's production every 2 years over the last 10 years, which means it would easily arguably take another decade at this rate for Tesla to have a production volume greater than BMW and Vokswagen combined. BMW and volkswagen trade relativly cheap and have their own plans to expand further into EV/Hybrid so i find them more attractive now, i made a good amount of money on Tesla myself but now have switched over to BMW.
Premiums might go up somewhat in Switserland though because of the trend of for example the USD versus CHF. With the amount of money they are printing currently in the US ... plus considering they have less control over Covid-19, might lead to a number of European and American investors moving away from the US. -
Certaintly could have bought that cheaper. Besides book value though it's hard to say what should be the price of the stock besides speculation and potential profit taking.
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gertrud hat am 25.07.2020 11:43 geschrieben:
ZitatDas war jetzt etwas unnötig, dieser Anflug von Xenophobie. Flemie, schreib was Du willst. Nicht die Sprache, die Argumente zählen.
Das wird hier sicher sehr kontrovers zugehen in diesem Meyer Burger Thread die nächsten Monate, und ich freu mich auf die Diskussion.
Kann auch sein, dass der Kurs vor und um die KE ein bisschen "gepflegt" wurde, aber ich denke, wir sind uns doch einig, das Cash Forum wird den Kurs von MBTN ganz sicher nicht beeinflussen können.Yeah i think youre right that noone on this forum will nessecarily have a big impact of the share price.
I can only reiterate that i consider it a risky form of speculation and it's up to others to decide wether they want to step in, but i don't think i need to be so paternalist to hold anyone's hand here to protect them from undue influences, this is a investment forum i think one should know what he enters when he comes here.
It's think also pretty impossible at this point to calculate the net present value of all cash flows - capital expenditure. Now Meyer Burger might trade more on it's book value and then some speculative modification on that. The prices weve seen lately seem to reflect a market cap that is more in line with book value.
Ive been looking at various solar stocks to get some impression regarding net/free cash flows in relation to capex. Some data for the years between 2014-2019 in rather rounded numbers:
Canadian solar:
2.7 billion Capex
900 million net cash flow
- 1.6 billion free cash flow
Jinkosolar:
2.4 billion capex
200 million net operating cash flow
- 2.1 billion free cash flow
Sunpower:
1.2 billion Capex
- 2.1 billion net operating cash flow
- 3.2 billion free cash flow
First Solar:
2.3 Billion Capex
1 billion net operating cash flow
- 1.2 billion free cash flow
Trina solar:
(numbers in CNY)
2.1 billion Capex
1.9 Billion net operating cash flow
- 150 million free cash flow(The sum doesn't always adds up because of rounding)
Perhaps not irrational from such numbers that most of these companies have a fair debt to equity ratio. Capital expenditure seems rather high for the solar industry limiting profitabillety and free cash flow or abbilety to return a dividend.
In 2010 Meyer Burger had better times, at that period their EBITDA was around 22.5% , i think you can take that as a measure of how much capital expenditure and the taking of additional debt could be avoided over time. Possibly this would be even higher if Meyer Burger develops machinery purely for itself?
Feel free to correct me where i made potential errors or where my interpretation might be lacking. But at the end of it profitabillety matters more as a way to remain competitive and for the shareholders interrest itself, and being able to significantly reduce Capex costs does look like a fair advantage?
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marabu hat am 24.07.2020 22:40 geschrieben:
ZitatFlemie hat am 24.07.2020 21:46 geschrieben:
Ok, so schreiben Sie doch in französischer Sprache, Flämisch verstehen wir wohl die meisten hier nicht. Italienisch wäre auch gut für mich, или по-русски, если хотите? Давай, давай, молодой человек!
Soviel mir bekannt ist, sind Niederländisch, Deutsch und Französisch Amtssprachen. Wir dürfen wohl annehmen, dass Sie in einer dieser Sprachen eloquenter kommunizieren?
Youre not forced to talk to me, lest to speak about insinuating that i am someone else. As to you taking liberty to scrutinise me on the languaghe i use, youre neither justified. When i activated my rights to post on this forum, the person on the forum said that this was a German languaghe forum, i asked if i was forbidden to write in English and the answer was "afcourse not". You have nothing to say here right? Youre no mod or admin right? Sure people have the right to ignore me for the languaghe i use but thats not what youre doing, you think youre at liberty to boss people around here?
Rather than doing that as an attempt to deflect, what about appologising for the gratiotous accusing remarks you made earlier?
I'm Dutch. Mijn moedertaal is Nederlands, ik denk niet dat iemand dit zal begrijpen. Je parle aussie une peu le Francais comme beaucoup des Belge mais c'est n'est pas parfait et je suis pas sure que c'est mieux come mon Anglais, ce'st plus facile pour parler le fracais en comparisment de ecrire le Francais.
I make a lot of errors in writing, i'm aware of that. Personally i think it's more important in communication to be understood than to be meticulous in grammar. You have however failed to even touch the content of my message rather than making ad-hominen remarks, so i wouldn't even know how "understandable it was despite gramatic errors". Even these reply's to you feels like a waste of my time already. -
marabu hat am 24.07.2020 17:59 geschrieben:
ZitatFlemie hat am 24.07.2020 13:25 geschrieben:
Da glaubt wohl ein knietief investierter Mitforist auf die alte Masche naive Frischlinge zum Kauf animieren zu können. Einen amerikanischen oder britischen "Investor" mimend, schwurbelt er in grässlichem Englisch seine Lobeshymnen auf diesen Titel.
Sahen wir das nicht schon öfters, zB bei der in Schieflage geratenen Newron? Neben wirklich gehaltvollen Beiträgen dann auch wieder ein echt unterhaltsames Forum, nicht wahr?
I'm not sure what youre problem is, because regardless of what you accuse me of it really makes no difference, i can give my oppinion here anbd likely you'd scrutinise any positive oppinion anyway so it wouldn't matter if i was a new poster, a "fake poster" or an established poster right?
Im Belgian btw. and i think youre very arrogant to even presume that you at liberty to make these accusations. Why can't investors dicuss this at liberty withought being so attacked by the likes of you? Is this coman behaviour where you are from? That you have a negative oppinion of the stock i see no reason why you couldn't give youre oppinion then again i don't see why this arrogant behaviour towards those with a different view should be so acceptable.
otherwise, if it is relly for accusations, what holds me to accuse you of being a shortseller that is still in red and wants to intimidate people here from investing in this? -
Sorry for my English
Took a position in Meyer Burger aswell, you got some interrest from abroad for this.
What do i like?
-For a Penny stock Meyer Burger for one has a bit more history, knowhow and tech than youre average penny stock thats for sure. Still, quite a bit of risk, not something i will take a big position in, but some small speculative position in my portfolio is fine. I am more motivated by the idea that MB also develops it's own production machinery and can set up it's own production lines likely rather cheaply, that seems quite a big advantage in the solar industry because as Solar panel producers go things are often rather unpredicable due to unforseen capital expenditure needs that can occur, being able to make a fair cost saving in this seems quite an advantage margin wise. I'm less convinced that they will have so much of a technological lead as others don't sit still but i am interrested in the effeciency increase they can achieve over time with their tech and the cells of Oxford PV.
-Where do i think the share price is going to go after KE? Up, potentially quite a bit. For this i would like to refer to the recent run of SUNRUN (ticker RUN on Nasdaq) which makes that stock quite overbought one could argue but thats because US investors are so crazily bullish about solar PV specificly in the solar rooftop space. With so much money being created extra by the FED for example it should seek a ROI where it wouldn't create to much inflation, emerging markets seem to be an answer and the Nasdaq sure took a rise this year. Solar rooftop installations likely will prove easy and interresting money over the next years as project developers can for example slap them n appartment blocks and sell the energy to their clients. A Company like Sunrun afaik even places panels on the rooftops of family's it gets permission off to then sell them the energy they get from the panel. They will compete against this with utillity's but there are likely other cost advantages to be able to bring the energy so close to youre client withought so much needed infrastructurre. Compounded anual growth rate for solar rooftop sollutions looks much better than solar within utillity's however most panel producers are more oreinted to the latter afaik.
Just my 5 cents, high risk potentially high reward and i expect the price to appreciate after the KE.