Hier gibt es einige interessante Überlegungen:
It looks to us as if gold is waiting at the cross-roads to see what happens in Europe. The key question is...do we get a Lehman event followed by TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) or TARP followed by Lehman? The Euro zone probably needs several weeks to complete the passage of the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and structure the proceeds into a vehicle to stabilize the banking system. Then, we will likely get a controlled Greek default, within the Euro, with a EuroTARP limiting contagion. Do we get a Lehman moment before the TARP architecture is in place? AND are the Germans willing to lever up the EFSF commitments as required? (440 billion euro is not enough). If 'Lehman' comes first, gold could take another hit (although this may already be priced into the market)...therefore western players wait to buy while Asians feast on the low price for physical gold. If TARP comes first, we think gold explodes to the upside. We believe that the Euro Zone will not allow any defaults until the EuroTARP is in place.
In the short term, aggressive physical gold buying among Asians appears to be balancing western fears of disorderly default. A growing number of central banks are also buying regardless of higher prices. Newswires this morning report that, in August, Thailand bought 300,000 oz. of gold, Bolivia purchased 225,000 oz, Russia added another 118,000 oz and Tajikistan bought 60,000 oz. In the longer term, the 'solution' to the unfolding debt crisis will, in our view, be more money printing and a higher gold price. That's the way central banks have dealt with every similar crisis in the past. Why would this time be any different?