Bond Crash now?

Die 10 years treasuries sind in den letzten Tagen von 3 auf 3.5% gestiegen. Vor wenigen Wochen lagen sie noch bei 2.5%. Liegen sie morgen oder übermorgen schon bei 4 und geht's bis Januar gegen 5%?

http://thehousingtimebomb.blog…-bond-crash-of-1930s.html

Whats interesting here is bonds crashed in 1932 at the same time that equities did. The lows in the stock market occurred in 1932. So why didn't we see another flight back to the safety in bonds in 1932 as stocks were crashing?

The reasons were two fold: Liquidity concerns and fears around inflation as a result of massive government stimulus.

Gee, does this sound familiar?

Folks, one of my favorite sayings is "history always repeats itself". I think we are seeing an exact replay in the treasury market today as we saw in 1932. We have seen treasuries rise and fall depending on what the stock market is doing.

However, as we spend ourselves into oblivion, the world is now concerned about our liquidity. They are also concerned about inflation because we are creating trillions of dollars in an attempt to bailout America!

A replay of the 1930's will almost assuredly happen at some point during our Great Depression part 2. Could we see one more rally into bonds if this bear market rally collapses? Perhaps, but this will most likely be the last one.

Folks, there comes a point in which the math no longer works. The Chinese and the ROW are not dopes. They are losing faith in our treasuries because we are running historic deficits at a time in which tax revenues are crashing!

http://turboluke.wordpress.com/2010/02/07/bond-crash-voraus/

So leidet die Attraktivität dieser vermeindlich sicheren Anlageform immer mehr. Die Nachfrage steht heute auf sehr wackeligen Füßen, sie ist de fakto kaum mehr vorhanden, weil immer weniger Käufer bereit sind mit dem Ankauf dieser Papiere indirekt die Verschuldungs- und Konsumorgien der Staaten zu finanzieren. Das Interesse besteht nur noch künstilich, und ich gehe davon aus, dass weitere Käufer im Zuge dieser Entwicklung abspringen werden. Gleichzeitig emitieren die Staaten immer mehr Staatspapiere, und man muss kein Prophet sein um auf absehbare Zeit sehen zu können, dass dieses wackelige Konstrukt umfallen wird, denn Angebot und Nachfrage sind wie oben angesprochen heute nicht mehr ausgeglichen.

Bond Crash now?

The Lost Decade For Bonds Has Begun! In order to enjoy your coming weekend, I thought you’d like a technical update of your positions, so feast your eyes on the two charts below. They say that a picture is worth a thousand words, so here is 2,000 words worth. If you have piled on the positions that I recommended over the last two weeks, these charts should enable you to sleep much better.

I believe these charts show that we are entering a major uptrend for financials, which are asserting themselves to become the lead sector for the market for the next several months. Watch the financial press this weekend, and you will hear a parade of technicians screaming that there has been a major trend reversal, a breakout, or a sea change. This alone could trigger a new wave of cash moving into the sector. The best case scenario has these things going up right into year end. Take a look at my Bank of America (BAC) trades, where the stock has popped 10% in two days. The low risk option play is up 57%, while the high risk one has soared by 325%. The fact that this is going on against a backdrop of a broader market that is doing diddly squat makes the moves even more convincing.

The exact reverse is true for bonds, where virtually every fixed income product broke down through their 200 day moving averages. Let me draw a simple picture for you laymen out there. That means you should sell every rally for the next ten years. The technical set up is now so dire, that bonds are going to have a really tough time rallying from here. The momentum players now smell blood in the water, and they’ll be jumping in with both feet at every opportunity. The lost decade for bonds has begun!

Of course, you knew this was coming. It is the ultimate irony that the first action of the party that campaigned hard and won the House of Representatives on promises to cut the deficit was to engineer a dramatic increase in the deficit with yesterday’s package of tax cuts. The bond market is not laughing.

Source:

http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/

Bond Crash now?

Danke Denne für Deine souveränen und beruhigenden Worte!