Globale Marktsituation

Globale Marktsituation

MarcusFabian wrote:

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Zu der Prognose von Merill: Merill hat im Oktober 2007 zum Aktienkauf geraten, weil der Boden nun erreicht und Aktien günstig seien. Ein Fehler, wie wie heute wissen.

Merill ist eine FED-Bank und "empfiehlt" uns genau das, was wir nach Meinung der FED kaufen sollen.

Auf Prognosen von Merill gebe ich deshalb keinen Pfifferling!

...wenn's um Gold geht aber schon,gell... :oops: :twisted:

http://www.cash.ch/forum/viewt…=148667&highlight=#148667

weico

Globale Marktsituation

weico wrote:

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...wenn's um Gold geht aber schon,gell... :oops: :twisted:

Das war keine Prognose sondern eine Nachricht. Ein Faktum.

Merrill hat ja nicht Gold zum Kauf empfohlen. Die werden sich hüten, JPM in den Rücken zu fallen

Globale Marktsituation

US-Haushaltsdefizit langfristig haltbar ?

New York (BoerseGo.de) – Laut dem US-Finanzministerium beläuft sich das das US-Haushaltsdefizit im Monat Dezember auf 83,6 Milliarden Dollar. Ein Großteil des Minus ist nach Angaben des US-Finanzministeriums auf Kapitalspritzen in Höhe von 51,1 Milliarden Dollar für angeschlagene US-Finanzinstitute im Rahmen des 700 Milliarden Dollar Rettungspakets für die Finanzbranche zurückzuführen. Im vergleichbaren Vorjahreszeitraum hatte die US-Regierung noch einen Haushaltsüberschuss in Höhe von 48,3 Milliarden Dollar ausgewiesen.

Nach den Worten des frisch gekürten Haushaltschefs des künftigen US-Präsidenten Barack Obama, Peter Orszag, sind auf kurze Sicht die Aussichten für die US-Wirtschaft düster, was dramatische Eingriffe notwendig mache. Der Staatshaushalt befinde sich jedoch auf einem Weg, der langfristig unhaltbar sei. Den Vereinigten Staaten drohten Haushaltsdefizite, die sich in nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahren bis auf 5 Prozent des US-Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) belaufen könnten. Vor dem Haushaltausschuss verteidigte der künftige Haushaltschef Obama's Pläne, die Wirtschaft durch staatliche Ausgaben und Steuererleichterungen anzukurbeln.

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So, jetzt gucken wir mal, was das heisst:

Die Amis haben Probleme (wie alle anderen auch) und brauchen deshalb ganz ganz dringend Geld (wie allen anderen auch). Deshalb sollen die Rettungspakete mit Kapital aus dem Ausland finanziert werden!

Ähhm? Welches Ausland? Das Ausland etwa, das jetzt selbst in der Klemme steckt und Geld braucht (wie alle anderen auch)?

Ist es nicht zu erwarten, dass dieses Ausland (gemeint sind wohl China, Japan, Europa) seine ersparten Kröten im eigenen Land einsetzen wird, um der eigenen Bevölkerung und Wirtschaft zu helfen statt sie dem Fass-ohne-Boden Amerika in den Rachen zu schieben?

Americans Still Believe in Santa Claus

Neues von Peter Schiff...

Bewertungsstatistik der Immobilien USA

Gemäss: Sag mir die Wunschzahlen, und die entsprechende Statistik wird aufgezeigt

http://www.kitco.com/ind/katz/jan122009.html

Krise hits Lappi's

Bin in Scandinavien (Schweden/Finland) bei einigen Bekannten gewesen.

Diese Länder sind sehr stark im Export wie Maschinen/Werkzeuge/Schiffsbau. Im letzten Jahr sah die Auftragslage noch ok aus, aber nun ist es dramatisch zusammengebrochen (viele Auftragssistierungen spez aus dem Ostblock/USA und Emerging, und keine neuen Aufträge). Fast alle Bekannten in diesen Sektoren sind nun auf Kurzarbeit, oder es werden Zwangsferien angeordnet. Auch die IT-Service Industrie hat es erwischt, da sie stark mit anderen Firmen in Europe oder America vernetzt sind.

Gemäss den Kollegen sieht es so düster aus wie Anfangs der 90er Jahre als der ganze Export mit der ehemaligen Sowjetunion zusammengebrochen ist. Dazumal gabe es in Finland eine Arbeitslosenrate von 18%.

Denke, dass auch wir uns in der CH noch warm anziehen müssen.

Re: Americans Still Believe in Santa Claus

soulrider wrote:

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Neues von Peter Schiff...

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Sehenswert, sehe aber in der Konsequenz (zumindest kurzfristig über die nächsten Monate) eine grössere Deflation und keine Hyperinflation wie Schiff sie befürchtet, ansonsten gehe ich 100% mit ihm einig.

Democrats Announce $550 Billion in Stimulus Spending

Grund für den heutigen Rally-Anstieg...

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(RTTNews) - Congressional Democrats Thursday unveiled $550 billion in spending programs that will be part of an expected $825 billion economic stimulus package they hope to have ready for a presidential signature in February. Speaking in a briefing for reporters, Rep. David Obey, D-Wis., chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, said the measures were necessary to avoid the prospect of 12 percent unemployment rates over the next two years. "You have to look at this bill not as a salvation for the economy," Obey said. "What it is is simply the largest effort by any legislative body on the planet to try to take government action to prevent catastrophe."

He added, "Even that may be insufficient standing alone and we may need to do more at a later date."

Obey said the stimulus, which is accompanied by $275 billion in tax cuts, was designed with five purposes in mind: cutting taxes for the middle class, "jump starting" jobs through infrastructure investment, helping those who have lost jobs or health insurance, and avoiding cuts or tax hikes at the state and local level that would run counter to the program's stimulus efforts. Some of the largest pools of money in the bill come in assistance to state and local governments, including an $87 billion increase in the Medicaid matching rate, and $79 billion in assistance to school districts and states, including $39 billion passed through existing programs, $15 billion in bonus grants for education programs and $25 billion to states for "high priority" needs such as law enforcement and education. The bill also proposes to spend $32 billion to upgrade the electricity grid and invest in renewable energy technology, $16 billion to repair and upgrade the energy efficiency of public housing, $30 billion for highway construction, and $31 billion for public infrastructure investments that lead to energy cost savings in the long run.

Another critical aspect of the bill, Obey said, were provisions to help displaced workers, including $43 billion for unemployment benefits and job training programs, $39 billion to help defer health insurance costs and a $20 billion increase in food stamp benefits.

At the same time, Obey emphasized that the programs are meant to be a two to three year bridge and not a permanent increase in federal assistance. "Virtually all of these programs are dialable back," Obey said. "You do a lot of things when you're looking at unemployment at 12 percent that you don't do when unemployment is at 5 percent." He added, "The economy is spiraling downward much faster than anyone anticipated." The federal dollars will also come with significant strings attached, including an oversight board of deputy cabinet secretaries and inspectors general who will keep an eye on spending with the goal of avoiding waste and abuse.

The spending will also be displayed on a special Web site and the legislation extends whistleblower protection to those receiving federal funds to encourage them to report problems to the inspectors general for investigation. Congress also wants to ensure that the funds are spent quickly, as well as wisely, Obey said. "There is language in here requiring federal agencies, not just states, to get off their duffs," Obey said, noting that many of the highway projects will come with 120-day "use it or lose it" requirements. "We tried to focus on projects with outlay rates that are fast," he said. "But if it doesn't have good long-term benefits for the economy it's probably not a wise investment."

Otherwise, he added, "you wind up just throwing money against the wall and we don't want to do that."

The projects chosen for funding were selected by analyzing the economic value as well as the time frame under which the money could be spent, Obey said. The majority of the money, approximately $318 billion, will be distributed to state and local governments, education systems and local nonprofit organizations, Obey said.

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Und wo sind die nötige Entlastungspakete für die Schulden der US-Haushalte (ausser Steuerverminderung)?

General Motors Updates On Restructuring Efforts

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Slashes Sales Volume Assumptions

(RTTNews) - Thursday, General Motors Corp. (GM: News ), said it was on track in its efforts at meeting the viability plan targets submitted with the federal government. Providing an update to its restructuring efforts included in the viability plan, GM indicated more stringent volume planning assumptions to ensure the success of the viability plan in the most difficult economic scenario.

GM noted that due to the precarious global business environment, it is adopting a more conservative industry volume assumptions than those presented to Congress. The company revealed that for liquidity and viability planning purposes, it would assume 2009 U.S. total vehicle sales of 10.5 million units and global sales of 57.5 million units.

The Detroit, Michigan-based company's updates were part of a comprehensive review of GM's global business by Rick Wagoner - Chairman and CEO, Fritz Henderson - President and COO, and Ray Young - Executive Vice President and CFO, at the Deutsche Bank 2009 Auto Analysts Conference in Detroit. The review focused on the global financial, operational and product portfolio actions taken by GM to restructure its business for greater competitiveness and long-term viability. The world's largest automaker's initial plan included a downside scenario of 10.5 million U.S. sales in 2009, with a baseline scenario of 12 million sales. GM also revised downwards its assessment of global industry volume assumptions for 2010-2012 for liquidity planning purposes.

A month ago GM submitted plan for long-term viability with the U.S. Congress. GM indicated that once it completed the restructuring actions laid out in the plan, it would be able to operate profitably at industry volumes between 12.5 and 13 million vehicles. The assumption is substantially below the 17 million industry levels averaged over the last nine years.

The carmaker requested term loans of up to $12 billion to provide adequate liquidity levels through December 31, 2009. The requested loan is centered on an initial draw of $4 billion in December 2008 and a $6 billion line of credit to provide liquidity should a severe market downturn persists. GM underlined that it intents to fully repay the loan 2012 under the baseline industry assumptions.

GM said that lowering the assumptions on U.S. and global industry volumes will drive tougher operational decisions that will result in a more robust viability plan, one that better positions the company for long-term growth as the auto market recovers. GM added that it would continue to refine its plan in response to changing market conditions.

On an adjusted basis, GM posted a third-quarter net loss of $4.2 billion or $7.35 per share, compared with a net loss from continuing operations of $1.6 billion or $2.86 per share in the same period last year. GM reported a net loss of $2.5 billion or $4.45 per share for the third quarter, including special items.

Revenue for the third quarter was $37.9 billion, down from $43.7 billion in the year-ago quarter, reflecting dramatic sales declines across the industry driven by unstable market conditions, instability in the credit markets and dramatic retraction in consumer demand, especially in North America and Europe. Wagoner said, "We are on track to accomplish the requirements of the viability plan. We know we have a lot of work in front of us, but we are already working closely with many key stakeholders. The GM team is 100% dedicated to achieving the goals of our plan."

Wagoner, however added, "The third quarter was especially challenging for the auto industry. Consumer spending, which represents close to 70 percent of the U.S. economy, fell dramatically, and the abrupt closure of credit markets created a downward spiral in vehicle sales." General Motors is currently trading at $3.84, down $0.01 or 0.26% on the NYSE.

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Naja, ich würde das nicht zu euphorisch auffassen. Die müssen es positiv rüberbringen...

Globale Marktsituation

Deutsche Banken sitzen auf Giftpapieren in Milliardenhöhe

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,601800,00.html

weico

Globale Marktsituation

Auch Europa hat wohl Probleme.. :oops:

http://boerse.ard.de/content.jsp?key=dokument_330684

weico

Globale Marktsituation

jetzt, wo obama im amt ist, wird alles gut :mrgreen:

Globale Marktsituation

reckefoller wrote:

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jetzt, wo obama im amt ist, wird alles gut :mrgreen:

Nur hat eben das "zusammengeschusterte EU-Gebilde" keinen Heilsbringer... :oops:

Dafür jede Menge Probleme :

http://www.welt.de/finanzen/ar…-einer-Zerreissprobe.html

P.S...und die "neueren Ost-Mitglieder" sind Hier noch nicht mal erwähnt... :oops:

P.S...aber vielleicht wird ja dann alles besser, wenn die Türkei noch beitritt... :roll: :twisted:

weico

Globale Marktsituation

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wenn die Türkeinoch beitritt...

Globale Marktsituation

Roubini:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d=aS0yBnMR3USk&refer=home

:oops:

P.S....

Freu mich schon auf Roubini's und Taleb's Reden am kommenden WEF...

P.P.S....ob Roubini Diesmal wieder von den Experten "belächelt" wird... :roll: :twisted:

weico

Globale Marktsituation

weico wrote:

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Freu mich schon auf Roubini's und Taleb's Reden am kommenden WEF...  

Ansonsten hat er natürlich ervorragende Zitate von Philosophen und Geschichtsbeispiele gebracht.

Globale Marktsituation

scaphilo wrote:

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weico wrote:

Taleb gefällt mir nicht, das ist ein Wichtigtuer der seine eigene Theorie nicht versteht. Seine Investmentstrategie hat mich davon abgehalten den zweiten Teil seines Buchs "The Black Swan" zu lesen. 85% in SICHERE Anlagen wie: US TREASURY BILLS!! Genau da wo das Problem liegt geht er hin. Wuahahah. Ein böses erwachen wirds geben.

Ansonsten hat er natürlich ervorragende Zitate von Philosophen und Geschichtsbeispiele gebracht.

..besser Du hättest das Buch Zuende gelesen..

weico

Globale Marktsituation

[Blocked Image: http://www.horschcartoons.de/upanddown/images/20090114.gif]

Globale Marktsituation

[Blocked Image: http://karikatur.augsten.at/karikaturen/2009-01-18_obama-change-yes-we-can-president-elect-white-house/2009-01-18_obama-change-yes-we-can-president-elect-white-house-640.jpg]

weico

Globale Marktsituation

Roubini, Edwards Predict Slump in S&P 500 on China

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d=aXouyZoIlrH0&refer=home

weico